City-Wide Up-Zoning Analysis

By David Shiver – Principal at BAE Urban Economics

The City's Housing Element clearly states that the City is not required to rezone or up-zone to 
meet its RHNA housing goals. The Council's proposed action to upzone all R-1 and R-2 
districts is not necessary to meet Berkeley's housing production goal of 8,934 affordable and 
market rate housing units. 

The growth projections that are behind the RHNA are out-of-date and overestimate population 
growth. The forecasts used for the Housing Element are based on way over-optimistic 
projections of population using data prior to the 2020 census. The California Department of 
Finance projects far less population growth statewide and in Alameda County. 

Single-Family zoning has already been eliminated statewide. Senate Bill 9 passed in 2021 
establishes ministerial approval of up to 4 units on a single single-family lot, subject to 
objective design standards. All Berkeley needs to do is establish objective design standards 
related to height, setbacks, and lot coverage. The proposed upzoning goes way beyond that! 

The proposed upzoning will permit up to 5-units (4 units plus ADU) with a permitted maximum 
height of 34 feet and 60 lot coverage ratio with no notice or public review. This means three 
stories next to one-story homes. It is not what the City Council advocates are saying to the 
public. 

With the state density bonus, even more units and relaxation of design standards can happen. 
All projects that include more than five units must provide 20 of the units at affordable rents. 
That will trigger the State density bonus which will allow the building to exceed the height limit 
and will allow for additional units (Susan Wengraf email). 

The new maximum going from 14' to 34' means new development can block solar 
installations. Owners of solar systems will have no recourse. This goes against our climate 
change programs and sustainability goals. 

This proposed action should be noticed to every resident in the City and is better considered 

; 

as a General Plan Update, not amendment. The impacts of this proposed upzoning should be 

fully vetted with residents and give all stakeholders a chance to evaluate this proposal with the 
idea of making sure we have a 'complete city' -one with adequate infrastructure, parks, and 
city services. 

There is nothing in the proposed zoning change that will result in affordable housing. The goal 
of Berkeley's Program 29 in the Housing Element is to "encourage housing for middle- and 
moderate- income households, and to increase the availability of affordable housing ... " (page 
146, Berkeley Housing Element). 

1 

Over the last Housing Element cycle, Berkeley under-produced affordable housing and 
overproduced market rate housing. Under the last housing element, Berkeley was supposed 
to produce 1,558 affordable housing units but only produced 691 units, less than half. 
However, the City produced 3,940 market rate units, way over the 1,401 units needed. 
(Annual Housing Element Progress Report, 2022, City of Berkeley, Table B, page 51. 

Berkeley needs to focus on producing affordable units. It's the only way to address unhoused 
people living on the streets and to provide people with low-paying jobs housing. 

Table 2-1. Defining affordabilit'l thresholds 

                      HOUSEHOLD               I        INCOME                                          EXAMPLE

               INCOME CATEGORY                          THRESHOLD                                          JOBS

                   *